With a spate of new shows arriving next month, I have some predictions for the success of the new shows. I haven't watched any of the new pilots, but based on the concepts, buzz, and marketing I can make a few speculations. Today I am starting with the CW which only has a few new shows.
Melrose Place
Another 90's primetime soap reboot along the lines of 90210. I expect it to pull almost the exact numbers 90210 has. Since this is CW, it won't be pulling big numbers, I'm guessing it will get between 2-3 million viewers in fact, however, it will bring the demographic CW is looking for -- 18-34 women.
The Vampire Diaries
I expect this to get numbers larger than those of Supernatural and Smallville which would be considered huge for the network. Those tweeners who have suddenly become interested in vampires due the Twilight fad and never heard of Anne Rice until a few years ago will find a perfect TV show. Vampires, cheesy storylines, and pretty guys. Those adults that still haven't upgraded to True Blood will probably be engrossed. Too bad they couldn't be there to save Moonlight.
The Beautiful Life: TBL
Mischa Barton's breakdown may actually help generate some publicity for the show. Paired with America's Next Top Model, I think this show will do OK for CW standards which at quite low. CW knows who they are targeting and this show goes right along with the type.
If anyone is wondering, I will not be watching any of these new shows (big surprise). I approach these shows with a 50-foot stick. I may not be watching, but I'm sure CW will find success with these shows. Even if their numbers don't match up, CW knows the formula: Trashy, sex, cheap.
Predictions For New Fall 2009-2010 TV Shows, part 5 (ABC)
Predictions For New Fall 2009-2010 TV Shows, part 4 (CBS)
Predictions For New Fall 2009-2010 TV Shows, part 3 (NBC)
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