Sunday, September 18, 2011

Emmy Awards 2011: Who should win and who will win

The Emmys are tonight and I won't be watching it, what with Breaking Bad on, but I'll throw out some predictions and whatnot. There's really no way to know how the Academy votes; sometimes it's infuriating, like when a declining show continues to win or get nominated, and sometimes we get a delightful surprise. So take everything with a grain of salt and remember that none of this really matters unless you're super-invested in a show.

Outstanding Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire
Friday Night Lights
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife
Mad Men

Who should win: Mad Men
Who will win: Boardwalk Empire

This is a stacked category with a perennial winner in Mad Men, which had a stellar fourth season. I'm guessing the voters will take the HBO bait and pick the newcomer Boardwalk Empire. It would be very cool if Friday Night Lights somehow won. But if Dexter wins, I might have get my baseball bat...

Outstanding Comedy Series
Big Bang Theory
Modern Family
The Office
Parks and Recreation
30 Rock

Who should win: Parks and Recreation
Who will win: Modern Family

No cable shows!!!!

It's a shame Community wasn't nominated, but Parks and Recreation is a very worthy replacement. However, this is the Emmys where a poor season of The Office manages to get nominated. In all honesty, this category is easily the weakest in terms of absolute "outstandingness". Aside from Parks and Recreation, none of these shows were particularly good last season, relative to their previous seasons or even to other shows. Will the voters recognize this? I'm expecting a Modern Family repeat.

Outstanding Actress in a Drama
Kathy Bates, Harry's Law
Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
Mireille Enos, The Killing
Mariska Hargitay, Law and Order: SVU
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Who should win: Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Who will win: Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

This is probably the toughest category. Elisabeth Moss submitted "The Suitcase," which has that scene, and will be stiff competition. Julianna Margulies, to everyone's surprise, did not win last year, which makes me  question whether she can win this year. Still, her submitted episode, "In Sickness," is quite intense in its own right, featuring the kind of Emmy bait voters look for. Maybe Connie Britton can win on the power of FNL's ending?

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama
Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Margo Martindale, Justified
Michelle Forbes, The Killing
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

Who should win: Margo Martindale, Justified
Who will win: Margo Martindale, Justified

Margo Martindale was beyond good on Justified and stands out among this stacked category. But I'm not sure the voters buy into Justified, considering it got no big nominations last year. Archie Panjabi got a surprise win last year, so she may be able to put it out again. Along the same lines, maybe Kelly Macdonald and   Michelle Forbes, the newcomers, can win it.

Outstanding Actor in a Drama
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
John Hamm, Mad Men
Hugh Laurie, House
Timothy Olyphant, Justified

Who should win: John Hamm, Mad Men
Who will win: John Hamm, Mad Men

OK, I may have to take back my comment about Outstanding Actress in a Drama being the hardest. I have this position: Just give the damn Emmy to Jon Hamm already. I feel bad for Hugh Laurie, as he's still excellent on a dying show, but I feel it's worse for Jon Hamm, who knows Emmy voters like his show but still pass him up. Bryan Cranston isn't eligible this year so it's about time.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
Walton Goggins, Justified
John Slattery, Mad Men
Andrew Braugher, Men of a Certain Age

Who should win: Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Who will win: John Slattery, Mad Men

I love Alan Cumming and I'd love to see Walton Goggins win for all the times he was snubbed while on The Shield, but Peter Dinklage on Game of Thrones is the freshest on my mind and was funny at every turn. Choosing a winner is very hard, because there is a no clear favorite. Archie Pannjabi somehow won for The Good Wife last year, but Julianna Margulies did not. Justified, Game of Thrones, and Men of a Certain Age are unknowns with only a handful of big nominations between them. That leaves Mad Men, which has raked in the outstanding drama awards but has struck out in every acting category. Will this be John Slattery's year? I'll say yes.

Outstanding Actress in a Comedy
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Laura Linney, The Big C
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Who should win: Toni Collete, United States of Tara (from the list: Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation)
Who will win:  Laura Linney, The Big C

Showtime overload crowds out the more-deserving Toni Collete. What can you say? That leaves Amy Poehler as my choice, but I don't think she'll win.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy
Jane Lynch, Glee
Betty White, Hot In Cleveland
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock

Who should win: Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Who will win: Jane Lynch, Glee

As good as Sofia Vergara is on Modern Family, I think the voters will go back and pick Jane Lynch again. Jane Lynch is somewhat deserving, but the way the writers handled her character the past season--making her the ultimate villain (as in evil, literally trying to kill people, etc) while trying to have it both ways on occasion, showing us her other side which is supposedly sweet and loving. It was weird and unsettling to see the way the writers dealt with her.

Outstanding Actor in a Comedy
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Louis C.K., Louie
Steve Carell, The Office
Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Who should win: Steve Carell, The Office
Who will win: Steve Carell, The Office

Steve Carell's last season on The Office should be a no-brainer. And by no-brainer I mean something that may be outside the grasp of the Emmy voters.

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy
Chris Colfer, Glee
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men

Who should win: Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation (Ron Swanson is fucking awesome so I won't even provide a pick from the list)
Who will win: Chris Colfer, Glee

Modern Family is the only show with supporting actors in a comedy! I was surprised when Eric Stonestreet won last year despite three Modern Family actors being in the mix. This year, there's four (four!) and no "Fizbo," so I don't think Eric Stonestreet will repeat nor will there be another Modern Family winner. This leaves Jon Cryer and Chris Colfer. Maybe the voters feel sorry for Jon Cryer having to put up with Charlie Sheen, but my bet is on Chris Colfer who was only of the few bright spots on Glee's second season.
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