As I've said before, the Emmy Awards are dumb. The voters are immersed in the television industry, which means they probably have ulterior motives for voting. And those who do judge impartially probably haven't watched much of the nominated shows other than the episodes submitted. All in all, it's a pretty pathetic process for an increasingly diverse television landscape. I have predictions and some thoughts anyway.
Outstanding Comedy Series
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" (HBO)
"Glee" (Fox)
"Modern Family" (ABC)
"Nurse Jackie" (Showtime)
"The Office" (NBC)
"30 Rock" (NBC)
Who should win: "Modern Family" (ABC)
Who will win: "Modern Family" (ABC)
The two juggernaut freshmen comedies Modern Family and Glee have come to clash, leaving behind the other shows in splinters. From the rest of the nominations, both received a lot of attention, so it should be close. Against my nature--and previous judgments of the Academy--I expect Modern Family to pull it out. Definite dark horse contender: Curb Your Enthusiasm
Outstanding Drama Series
"Breaking Bad" (AMC)
"Dexter" (Showtime)
"The Good Wife" (CBS)
"Lost" (ABC)
"Mad Men" (AMC)
"True Blood" (HBO)
Who should win: "Breaking Bad" (AMC)
Who will win: "Mad Men" (AMC)
Very, very stacked category, but there are two clear front-runners--Mad Men and Breaking Bad, both AMC dramas. Mad Men won the past two years, but this is time for Breaking Bad which had its strongest season this year. However, we have to put in mind how close-minded the voters are, which means Mad Men should take it again.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"
Hugh Laurie, "House"
Matthew Fox, "Lost"
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"
Who should win: Hugh Laurie, "House"
Who will win: Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"
I'd love for Hugh Laurie to win--he's the only reason to watch House anymore--and he deserves the award after years of great acting on the show. But, with Bryan Cranston nabbing the award two years in a row and the big bully Dustin Hoffman entering the TV world next year, I expect Jon Hamm to get it this year.
Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series
Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"
Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
Matthew Morrison, "Glee"
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"
Steve Carell, "The Office"
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
Who should win: Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"
Who will win: Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"
Tony Shalhoub hasn't won in years, but he's gotten some Emmy love in a nomination every year, so I predict he'll win one for the swan-song season. For all of Adrian Monk's quirks, I don't think anyone on television can quite match up to Sheldon Cooper who singlehandedly drives TBBT. As always Alec Baldwin is a strong contender and could win again.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Comedy Series
Lea Michele, "Glee"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures Of Old Christine"
Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"
Amy Poehler, "Parks And Recreation"
Tina Fey, "30 Rock"
Toni Collette, "United States Of Tara"
Who should win: Toni Collette, "United States Of Tara"
Who will win: Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"
I predict that Carmela Soprano will win--and Jackie Peyton will be along for the ride. In all honesty, Toni Collette is leaps and bounds in front of the competition. Tina Fey may slip in for the win.
Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"
Glenn Close, "Damages"
Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights"
Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit"
January Jones, "Mad Men"
Who should win: Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
Who will win: Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
This is the one category that should have no questions. From the beginning, Julianna Margulies was nothing short of mindblowingly incredible. The first couple of weeks, I was shocked how she made such a big impression on me as I was fixated on her the entire episode, fully expecting her to slowly become another television character by the end of the first season. Lo and behold, there I was at the end of the first season, still entranced by her as ever.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series
Chris Colfer, "Glee"
Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother"
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, "Modern Family"
Eric Stonestreet, "Modern Family"
Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"
Jon Cryer, "Two And A Half Men"
Who should win: Eric Stonestreet, "Modern Family"
Who will win: Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother"
The Modern Family overload is precarious, as the three may cancel each other out, putting NPH out in front of Eric Stonestreet who deserves to win. I wouldn't be surprised if Jon Cryer took second with the divided Modern Family vote.
Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series
Aaron Paul, "Breaking Bad"
Martin Short, "Damages"
Terry O'Quinn, "Lost"
Michael Emerson, "Lost"
John Slattery, "Mad Men"
Andre Braugher, "Men Of A Certain Age"
Who should win: Terry O'Quinn, "Lost"
Who will win: Terry O'Quinn, "Lost"
It would be a shame if Lost didn't win anything for its final season and Terry O'Quinn definitely has the body of work to win.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series
Jane Lynch, "Glee"
Julie Bowen, "Modern Family"
Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family"
Kristen Wiig, "Saturday Night Live"
Jane Krakowski, "30 Rock"
Holland Taylor, "Two And A Half Men"
Who should win: Jane Lynch, "Glee"
Who will win: Jane Lynch, "Glee"
Since Glee got so many nominations and Jane Lynch has been getting lots of attention, this one is hers. She's just an entirely different creature--funny, stern, and exudes intangibles no one else has.
Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series
Sharon Gless, "Burn Notice"
Rose Byrne, "Damages"
Archie Panjabi, "The Good Wife"
Christine Baranski, "The Good Wife"
Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men"
Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men"
Who should win: Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men"
Who will win: Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men"
With exception of Rose Byrne (who is good, but not on the same level), this category is stacked from top to bottom. Although The Good Wife has two nominees in the category, this is a Mad Men fight. Christina Hendricks has gotten much more attention in the press than Elisabeth Moss which is why she'll win. Elisabeth Moss, who had lots of good material in the first two season, unfortunately, didn't have much going on in the third season (though she's far better than Hendricks--don't hurt me!). If the votes between The Good Wife and Mad Men do get split, however, we could get a shocker in the form of Sharon Gless who has the most qualities of an Emmy winner out of the Burn Notice cast, or Rose Byrne who is featured heavily on Damages for a supporting actress.
